October is traditionally a time when Houston’s real estate market sees a final surge of activity before the holiday slowdown. With mortgage rates dipping to their lowest point in over a year and inventory at healthy levels, many of us expected the fall 2025 market to be booming.

But that’s not what happened.

Instead of picking up speed, the market seemed to stall, and many buyers—who would typically re-enter the market after summer—chose to sit on the sidelines. After reviewing the numbers and conversations with both clients and colleagues, one thing became clear:

🔍 Uncertainty was the biggest obstacle, and much of it was tied to the record-breaking 43-day government shutdown.

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The Weight of Uncertainty

This shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, came with its share of economic strain and emotional stress—from furloughed workers to delayed services like flood insurance approvals through the National Flood Insurance Program.

Even buyers who weren’t directly impacted felt the effects. When the headlines are filled with budget debates, government gridlock, and economic instability, confidence naturally dips. And in real estate, buyer confidence is everything. A cautious buyer is far less likely to commit—even in favorable market conditions.

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A Look Back: What Happened After the 2018–2019 Shutdown

We’ve been here before. During the 35-day shutdown in late 2018 and early 2019, the housing market also saw a brief pause. But once the government reopened, the rebound was swift:

• Buyer demand picked up quickly, especially in affordable and mid-range markets.
• Sellers who had been waiting to list jumped in, creating a surge in activity through February and March.
• Confidence returned as financial uncertainty eased.

That historical precedent gives us reason to be optimistic about what’s next.

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What We Might See This Time Around

Now that the 43-day shutdown has officially ended, we could be in for a similar pattern—even with the holidays approaching. While it’s true that November and December typically bring slower traffic due to travel, school breaks, and seasonal distractions, we’ve seen serious buyers re-engage in late Q4 and early Q1 once economic uncertainty settles.

What could support a rebound this time?

✔️ Lower mortgage rates, offering buyers more affordability
✔️ Higher inventory, giving them more choices
✔️ A renewed sense of confidence as headlines begin to shift

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Final Thoughts: A Market on Pause, Not a Market in Decline

This fall’s unexpected slowdown doesn’t reflect a lack of interest; it reflects a market briefly on pause. The foundation remains strong, and all signs suggest that Houston’s resilience will once again shine through, just as it has in the past.

If history repeats itself, the next few months could bring a wave of re-energized buyers and sellers ready to make their move—with more clarity and less hesitation.